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Resulta que el Banco de México nos sorprendió hace unos días al aumentar sorpresivamente la tasa de interés en 25 puntos base, contrario a lo esperado por la mayor parte del mercado. Con esto, el referencial se ubica en 4.25 por ciento con efectos a partir del 25 de junio de 2021.

Dos miembros de la Junta de Gobierno votaron por mantener la tasa sin cambios y reconocieron que la cadena de suministro se ha visto afectada por la pandemia.

El Banco Central tiene como mandato único la estabilidad de precios y cuenta con un rango objetivo de una inflación de 3 por ciento +/- un punto porcentual.

Las expectativas de inflación general y subyacente en 2021 volvieron a aumentar y las de mediano y largo plazos se mantuvieron relativamente estables en niveles superiores a la meta de 3 por ciento. Ahora se estima que la inflación general converja a la meta de 3 por ciento en el tercer trimestre de 2022.

La inflación, que el Banxico tiene como mandato mantenerla baja y estable, se ubicó en 6.02 por ciento en la primera quincena de junio, esta cifra es la más alta desde la segunda quincena de abril de este año.

La variación estuvo impulsada por los precios en los servicios debido a la reapertura paulatina de la economía.

El Banco Central, en su comunicado de política monetaria, reforzó su postura a fin de evitar afectaciones en las expectativas de inflación.

Ahora, todo esto, ¿cómo afecta la economía?

1. Un movimiento en la tasa de referencia es una de las herramientas de política monetaria con las que cuentan el Banco de México y todos los bancos centrales del mundo. El objetivo de realizar un movimiento en las tasas es mantener la estabilidad del poder adquisitivo de la moneda, lo que impacta en otras variables económicas como la inflación y el crecimiento económico.

2. ¿Qué pasa si baja la tasa de interés? Los créditos se vuelven más baratos, ya que los bancos tienen como referencia la tasa del Banco Central. Así se busca un mayor consumo de parte de las personas y empresas para impulsar la economía.

3. Sin embargo, una mayor tasa de interés reduce la demanda agregada desincentivando la inversión y el consumo, buscando aumentar el ahorro de las personas; de esta manera se limita la cantidad de dinero disponible en la economía, con lo que se previene una alta inflación.

4. El alza del referencial también puede verse reflejado en el aumento del costo de créditos como los hipotecarios y los automotrices.

5. ¿Tienes una tarjeta de crédito o buscas tener una? El alza también se refleja en los intereses que se cobran en las tarjetas de crédito. Esto último depende de cada banco.

6. El mayor impacto en las tarjetas se da en las compras a tasa variable. Si compras a meses sin intereses (y cumples con los pagos), el alza del Banxico no te afectará.


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